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Fast Facts

• The U.S. inflation rate  8.2 percent in September 鈥� the highest seen since the 1980s
• Rising prices for food, gasoline and energy are among the areas where consumers are seeing the most significant day-to-day impact
• Despite efforts to cool inflation by raising rates and the Inflation Reduction Act, new projections  the likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months

Potential economic slowdown and rising inflation pose far-reaching challenges for numerous sectors of American life, including education, food access and mental health. Here鈥檚 what research tells us could lie ahead.

Inflation vs. Education

From budget strains and school supply costs, inflation is posed to cast a shadow across multiple sectors of education. But for TC鈥檚 Samuel Abrams, Adjunct Assistant Professor of Education, 鈥渢he most salient impact of inflation on education stands to be the pain it causes teachers.鈥�

鈥淔or decades, the pay of teachers relative to the pay of other college graduates has been slipping, so much so that teachers across West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Arizona famously walked out in 2018 in protest against this shrinking purchasing power,鈥� reflects Abrams, who is currently serving as a Fulbright Visiting Professor at Finland鈥檚 University of Turku.

鈥淭eachers are now in a particularly tough spot for two reasons: first, their pay is determined by contracts negotiated for several years at a time, with only marginal year-to-year adjustments pegged to projected cost-of-living increases; second, teachers, like most workers with modest incomes, spend a disproportionate amount of their paychecks on such essentials as rent and groceries, which have spiked in cost. Inflation has accordingly made the teaching profession both less attractive to those thinking of entering the field and less viable for those already in it.鈥�

Abram鈥檚 projections 鈥� if realized 鈥� could likely collide with the ongoing teacher shortage, meaning that public officials and teacher unions would likely have to work even harder to fill staffing gaps and meet demand.

In addition to inflation鈥檚 effect on teachers, student loan debt is continuing to raise challenges for students pursuing higher education, particularly those from lower-socioeconomic backgrounds.

"Most students struggling with debt today are from low income or middle class families,鈥� says Henry Levin, the William Heard Kilpatrick Professor Emeritus of Economics and Education. 鈥淭hese students often use their loans to support family members with expenses.鈥�

As inflation trends upward, the pressure to surreptitiously use more of these loans may be even greater, says Levin, who adds that students frequently utilize their loans for additional expenses, including automobiles, electronics, and necessities.

But students are faced with an even greater challenge in navigating today鈥檚 job market, which continues to fluctuate in a post-pandemic world. Graduates, Levin says, often overpredict the simplicity of securing a job, making it even more difficult to account for loans. "Students are remarkably naive regarding the meaning of debt and repayment; they often view the future as far more profitable and immediate upon graduation."

Upon these obstacles, many find themselves asking: 鈥榳hat's next?鈥� According to experts like Levin and Abrams, a predicted 鈥渄ownward push鈥� in spending and purchasing power is near.

Inflation vs. Food Access and Nutrition

Inflation compounds existing inequity in America鈥檚 food system, explains two experts from the Laurie M. Tisch Center for Food, Education and Policy: Pamela Koch, the center鈥檚 Faculty Director and the College鈥檚 Mary Swartz Rose Associate Professor of Nutrition and Education; and Jen Cadenhead, Tisch鈥檚 soon-to-be Executive Director.

鈥淭he people who are wealthy in this country are going to be just fine. The people who are feeling the brunt of it are the people who are poor and the people who have kids,鈥� says Cadenhead. 鈥淎fter rent, heat, etc., food is the last thing that people pay for, and federal waivers [providing free school meals] have just expired. What does that mean? At the same time that food prices are going up, key government support has fallen away. It鈥檚 really going to be very sad.鈥�

But inflation won鈥檛 just hit the dinner table. School meal programs will also likely shift to adapt to costs, and with the simultaneous end to the pandemic-era federal program that issued universal free meals, schools will be tasked with combating social stigma, supply chain issues and challenges in maintaining food quality.

鈥淚f a family is counting on their kid having the lasagna they love on Thursdays, and that kid doesn鈥檛 get that meal, parents are going to be upset.鈥� says Cadenhead, emphasizing that the strength of the system is built on trust.

鈥淪chool meals are the healthiest meals that Americans eat. School meals are not what they were 20, 30 years ago. Even if there are differences in services, giving school meals a second look is important,鈥� says Cadenhead, whose research examines the complex relationship between diet and health issues. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really the only place where kids get their fruits and vegetables where people are experiencing food deserts. You can trust school meals.鈥�

Food and nutrition inequity will also likely be further compounded by inflation鈥檚 effect on government assistance programs, like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Koch explains: 鈥淪NAP benefits are not adequate for eating healthily鈥�and unfortunately, even though the benefits were adjusted to address inflation in 2021, it鈥檚 now getting behind again. It can鈥檛 adequately support healthy eating.鈥�

But what could alleviate these risks? For nutrition advocates like Koch and Cadenhead, the hope of passing Child Nutrition Reauthorization may be at risk if it fails to happen before this congressional session ends in December. Properly funding food access and nutrition programs would face greater barriers with a fiscally conservative majority, explains Cadenhead. 鈥淚t shouldn鈥檛 be partisan to feed kids.鈥�

Inflation vs. Mental Health

A new survey from the American Psychological Association  that 83 percent of adults cite inflation as one of their most significant sources of stress. As Americans grapple with a shifting economy, kids are likely to experience compounding effects.

鈥淚t鈥檚 like anything; when parents have stressors, kids can feel that tension and anxiety,鈥� explains Cindy Huang, Assistant Professor of Counseling Psychology. 鈥淲hen parents are stressed, it impacts how they are with their kids; they might have decreased patience, they might be more irritable. Any of the ways humans show their stress, that transfers to our kids.鈥�

Minimizing the adverse effects of this stress starts with developmentally appropriate communication, Huang advises: 鈥淟et them know about what is going on in a way that does not increase anxiety. Stick to the facts. And emphasize that it's not because the child did something.鈥�

But when parents fail to communicate in a developmentally appropriate way, children will often respond in two key ways: they鈥檒l internalize the issue, blaming themselves, or they鈥檒l externalize the problem and act out.

鈥淜ids feel what is happening. Period. And when things are vague, meaning they don鈥檛 know why their parents are tense, or worried, they may internalize or act out in reaction to their parents鈥� stress. And that鈥檚 how we see this trickle-down effect,鈥� says Huang, noting that financial stress can affect families at all socioeconomic levels.

In addition to openly communicating in a developmentally appropriate way, Huang advises that parents regularly engage in 鈥渟elf-checks鈥� when stressed to help them process their emotions. 鈥淭aking a moment to acknowledge how you feel can be a first step,鈥� says Huang. 鈥淧arenting is tense enough already and your kid annoyed you by asking for something you can鈥檛 give them, and then you snapped at them鈥�Those immediate reactions are part of not realizing how tense you feel.鈥�

— Morgan Gilbard and Jacqueline Teschon